DBW - Scoring Our Ten Bold Predictions for Book Publishing in 2012 — Halfway Mark

July 2, 2012 | Jeremy Greenfield | DBW

By Jeremy Greenfield, Editorial Director, Digital Book World, @JDGsaid




In December 2011, we spoke to a panel of book industry and media experts to hear their bold predictions for the book publishing industry in 2012. Six months later, we’re checking in to see how many have come true, are on their way, or are looking unlikely to happen in 2012 or ever.
How accurate was our crystal ball in 2011? Read on to find out.
Related: Ten Bold Predictions for Book Publishing in 2012

1. We will see more self-published best-sellers next year with an exponential rise in the number of million-selling authors.
Score: Almost there
While an increasing number of self-published authors are finding fame and fortune, there hasn’t to our knowledge been “an exponential rise” in the number of indie-authors who have sold a million books on Kindle or Nook.
That’s no matter to Tracy Garvis Graves and E.L. James who have risen to prominence on the backs of surprise hits On the Island and 50 Shades of Grey, both of which were initially self-published* and have since been picked up by traditional publishing houses.
* Editors’ Note: 50 Shades was originally self-published by James on her personal website before being published on a print-on-demand basis by a small Australian press.



2. Large publishing companies will go through major restructurings, creating new positions and redundancies of all shapes and sizes.
Score: Already happened
We were right on with this prediction. Publishing companies of all shapes and sizes are restructuring to meet the needs of their new digital-focused business models. Most recently, HarperCollins restructured its sales force to focus on digital and analytics. The company also reorganized its worldwide publishing operations around local print-on-demand centers and changed its organizational structure to match.
Macmillan went through a global restructuring in June. Sourcebooks continued to grow with the appointment of its first-ever chief operating officer as well as hires in its education division. Open Road Media continued to grow. NBC Publishing sprouted up out of the News division of the media conglomerate.
It’s safe to say that this trend will continue throughout 2012.

Check the rest of the predictions and how DBW is scoring here.