Australia's leading election analyst presents annual Chapman Lecture

Australia's best-known elections analyst will deliver The University of Auckland's annual Chapman Lecture later this month.

Dubbed the "face of ABC-TV elections", Antony Green ,is hailed for his extensive and detailed election coverage for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

In his forthcoming lecture, entitled "Polls versus Expectations An Australian Perspective on the New Zealand Election", Green will bring his expertise to bear on New Zealand's 2008 election.

He will be discussing the extent to which pre-election polls in New Zealand in 2008 are likely to match the electoral outcome, in the light of his knowledge of similar pre-election polls before the last three Australian Federal elections

To date, he has analysed nearly 40 Australian territory, state and federal elections for the ABC, starting with the 1989 Queensland state election and including the 2007 Federal election. A former data analyst, he himself designed the computer system he uses to predict election outcomes based on partial results.

Head of the University's Department of Political Studies, Associate Professor Raymond Miller, says there are striking parallels between Green's expertise and the work of the University's inaugural Professor of Political Studies, Robert Chapman, (pic left) after whom the Chapman Lecture is named.

"Like Antony Green, Bob Chapman became known to the wider public for his radio and television interviews on polls, voting behaviour and election outcomes. His written commentaries on New Zealand elections, which appeared in the likes of The Listener and National Business Review, contributed much to the public's understanding of New Zealand politics," says Associate Professor Miller.

As well as his ABC analysis, Green has observed and commented on elections in Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and writes analyses for the Sydney Morning Herald and other high-profile media outlets. He co-edited the comprehensive Electoral Atlas of New South Wales, which maps the history of the state's politics, and he is currently working on an historical project to document New South Wales' elections on the period before Federation.

He has also appeared before the Australian House of Representatives' Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, where he has urged reform of the ticket voting system used in Australian Senate elections. He produces regular publications on elections for Australian parliamentary libraries.

Antony Green will deliver the Chapman Lecture at 6:30 pm on Monday 22 September in the Maidment Theatre (8 Alfred Street).

The lecture is free and open to the public. The bar is open from 5:30pm.