Nobel Prize in Literature: Ladbrokes sets odds

The Literary Saloon

       There's less than a month until the earliest date the Swedish Academy could announce this year's Nobel Prize in Literature laureate, and finally Ladbrokes has released its odds for the prize (note that they've already changed the URL once for this, but it's there on the site) -- the traditional starting-point for wild speculation, conspiracy (and other) theories, and fun official statements from Swedish Academicians sure to confuse, confound, and irritate. 

       A quick reminder of how things work: the Swedish Academy put together a list of, as the guy in charge, Peter Englund, reported, 195 eligible authors in the spring, including 48 first-time nominees (who, so rumor has it, tradition has it aren't seriously considered) -- compared to 210 authors and 46 first-timers in 2012. As they explain: in April they pared that down to a 'preliminary list' of 15 to 20 candidates, and then in May they settled on a definitive list of candidates -- "of five names as a rule". Then everyone spent the past couple of months reading the works of these five authors, and in the fall the debating starts. Note, however, that the winner is only settled on at the last get-togethers, usually in early October -- so at this time there is a list of five contenders, but no winner. 

       The Swedish Academy doesn't reveal the names of anyone along the way -- not the submitted authors, not the preliminary list, not the remaining five. Or they try not to, anyway -- last year some of the names that appeared early on the betting sheets, like Darcia Maraini and eventual winner Mo Yan, probably slipped out along the way. And while there's no way of guessing the winner yet, maybe there are some signs pointing to some of the final five ... hence also always the interest in the Ladbrokes list, usually the most reliable of the betting lists (though Betsson has a hometown edge -- and they also offer odds, as does betsafe).

       So what to make of this year's Ladbrokes' list ? Well, for one, they seem to have taken the kitchen sink approach, offering odds on 116 authors (but at least offering 100/1 -- i.e. a good return -- on 83 of those). Disappointingly, the list is largely one of where-we-left-off-last-year -- same names, by and large similar odds.
       The top ten and their opening odds are:

• Murakami Haruki 3/1
• Joyce Carol Oates 6/1
• Nádas Péter 7/1
• Ko Un 10/1
• Alice Munro 12/1
• Adonis 14/1
• Assia Djebar 14/1
• Amos Oz 16/1
• Philip Roth 16/1
• Thomas Pynchon 20/1

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