Tough year ahead for the trade
by Neill Denny

Neill Denny (right) is editor-in-chief of The Bookseller. He blogs on the book business and on how the print magazine is produced each week.

Christmas, indeed the whole of 2009, will go down as the narrowest of narrow squeaks with the market overall down a mere 1.2% by value, and just 0.5 % by volume. In a calendar year that has seen the UK economy contract by almost 5%, that is no mean performance and proves once again that the book trade is recession-resistant, if not entirely recession-proof.

But that reasonably optimistic overview is to ignore the real signs of distress coming from key parts of the trade. The first is high street bookselling, where the collapse of Borders and Wesley Owen late last year were symptomatic of a sharp decline. Nielsen’s General Retail Market measure, the closest thing we have to a pure high street sales monitor, showed sales value falling by almost 7%. The reasons high street bookshops are falling out of favour with many customers can be easily summarised: the internet has wider range, and the supermarkets are cheaper and more convenient.

The publishers have taken a pounding too. The weaknesses of the hardback non-fiction fiction market have been pored over, although our detailed look at the market on page 18 shows the death of the celebrity market has been somewhat exaggerated. A weak “Richard & Judy” performance in 2009 was therefore doubly unfortunate, and, although there were successes from Dan Brown, Stephenie Meyer and Hilary Mantel, these were only local bright spots against a more sombre backdrop.

So the trade enters 2010 in a slightly battered state, and it would be foolish to assume any rapid improvement. Indeed, in the short term, things will quite probably get worse. The first post-Christmas week showed the market down by almost 10%. The rest of the year looks equally discouraging.

A pivotal general election, which may well see only the second change of governing party since 1979, will distract the serious book-buying public in the spring. Dan Brown and Stephenie Meyer have shot their bolt, and if Richard and Judy do put together a show to rival Amanda Ross’ Channel 4 book strand there is a very real risk that the public will be confused and turn off both. Perhaps only the unlikely event of England lifting the World Cup could provide a mid-year boost.

Although the broader economic picture looks better than a year ago, post-election tax rises will sap consumer spending. All this, and digital too. Much now depends on publishers unearthing some real gems, as well as a vibrant independent retail sector to take a risk on them.