Publishing Crashes in 2012
Michael A. Stackpole in the Huffington Post
www.stormwolf.com


Michael Shatzkin, a book industry consultant who is widely read and respected, weighed in with an interesting article about how soon the publishing crash could come. His analysis is fairly solid and he sees a "serious disruption" in book distribution as early as November, 2012.

His thinking runs thusly: once ebook sales hit 20-25% of book sales, print run numbers will fall to a point where the current consignment system for sales will break down. Under the current system, most books can be returned for credit, so for every book sold, two are printed. Those "returned" books have the covers torn off, and the guts discarded, so they cannot be put out into the market again. Ebook sales will create smaller print runs, driving up the unit cost, forcing higher prices which, in turn, will kill sales. Game over.

Aside from my discomfort with the vanity publishing companies he cites in the article as self-publishing resources for authors, I think the analysis is fairly solid. It's very much the same thing that Michael Mennenga and I have been talking about for the last three years on Dragonpage Cover to Cover, our book and publishing podcast. Shatzkin's strategies for publisher survival even parallel my suggestions in a recent post on my website suggesting ways Random House can save itself.


Prognosticating the future of traditional publishing is not a case of figuring out what will happen, it's just pinpointing the when. Shatzkin suggests November, 2012. I think it will be sooner: June 2012, and the most serious blow will be struck in December, 2011, when a second wave of tablets becomes the hottest holiday gift item. To Mr. Shatzkin's credit, one factor in my analysis wasn't announced until after he published his analysis, and I would expect him to revise his timeline when he factors it in.
Read Stackpole's gloomy scenario in full at Huffington Post.